Yutong Bus (600066): Outstanding Company Underrated Bus Leader
The passenger car industry has now entered a mature stage and sales have entered a platform stage.
We think there is little room for the bus industry to continue to decline in the future, and the annual sales volume of the industry may remain at about 500,000.
There is still room for improvement in the penetration rate of new energy buses, and the sales volume of large and medium-sized buses is relatively stable. The concentration of the large and medium-sized buses industry has continued to increase 杭州夜网论坛 in the past three years. Further improvements in the future can still be overcome, which is good for Yutong.
In terms of categories, buses and buses are irreplaceable, and their holdings continue to increase, making it difficult to shift sales significantly.
The penetration rate of new energy bus sales for buses has been high, and there is little room for further improvement, but it is certain that the penetration rate of new energy buses will continue to increase.
Affected by the high-speed rail diversion, the seat passenger car market will remain stable or continue to shrink in the future; the school bus market will continue to remain stable, making it difficult for major ups and downs.
New energy bus subsidy policies are becoming stricter, but the impact of the decline may be less than expected.
Taking 杭州桑拿 2018 as an example, among the new energy buses, the proportion of large, medium and small passengers was 51%, 37%, 4%, and 8%, respectively.
Among new energy buses, the proportion of urban buses reached 95%, and among new energy buses, the proportion of urban buses was as high as 98%. This trend is likely to continue in the future.
The “deception” incident has accelerated the tightening of subsidy policies.
The subsidy began to decline rapidly in 16 years, and the compensation tilted towards the high-charge model.
At present, the supplement is sufficient. The impact of continued decline in the future will be less than the impact of the compensated decline in previous years on the profit of bus companies.
Yutong Bus Company has excellent governance and many excellent ones.
Both budget financial data and per capita financial data are at the forefront of the industry.
The gross profit margin was broken by the impact of new energy subsidies, and profitability was stronger than intervention.
The high investment in research and development has strengthened the competitive advantage of the product and promoted the increase of Yutong’s market share.
Yutong has already laid out on fuel cells and has commercialized demonstration operation products.
The average value of Yutong’s PE and PB is small.
The reasonable PE of commercial vehicle companies is estimated to be more than 15 times. We think that the reasonable PE of Yutong is more than 15 times. At present, the market has underestimated Yutong.
PB is at the highest position in history, Yutong PB is 2 most of the time.
7 times more, currently 1.
9 times the PB uplink space is still engaged.
Investment suggestion: A reasonable estimate of the commercial vehicle mark is higher than that of a passenger car.
Coupled with Yutong or because of its own competitive advantages, the city’s share has increased.
Therefore, we believe that Yutong’s reasonable PE is more than 15 times. At present, there are low estimates of Yutong in the market. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to be 24 in 19-21.
0 billion, 25.
700 million and 27.
800 million, corresponding to PE of 12.
4 times, 11.
6 times, 10.
7 times, giving Yutong Bus 15 times PE for 20 years, corresponding to a target price of 17.
40 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.
Risk reminder: The passenger car industry’s sales volume is less than expected, the replacement of new energy buses has declined more than expected, and the price reduction of Sandian’s procurement has fallen short of expectations