Construction Research Group (002398): Construction comprehensive service provider welcomes rapid growth in the new round
Construction comprehensive service providers welcome rapid growth in the new round, covering the “Buy” rating for the first time. CCRI is gradually the first overall construction scientific research institution listed. We believe that the company has ushered in a new round of rapid growth and is expected to show rapid growth in 2011-2012The expected excess income growth trend during the growth period is significantly increased due to the following reasons: 1) Additives business: stable demand, increased industry concentration, rapid cost decline, gross profit margin increase, and rapid growth in net profit; 2) Inspection business:”Regional, cross-sector” development strategy, endogenous + episodic steady growth; 3) Building information and intelligent service business: increase collaboration with downstream construction customers.
We judge the company’s 19/20 profit growth rate is 50% / 22%, EPS0.
66 yuan, currently expected to correspond to 19 / 20E P / E 11x / 9x, significantly lower than comparable companies, using the segment estimation method, the target price of 7.
74, corresponding to 13-16x 19-year target PE, covering the “Buy” rating for the first time.
The admixture leader benefited from the increase in concentration and gross profit margin. In 2015, the sales value of admixtures for concrete increased by 552 trillion. The industry concentration has increased significantly from 17 years. The driving factors include: 1) the environmental protection trend is severe and small factories are withdrawing;) The concentration of downstream customers has increased, and the requirements for brand, service capabilities and financial strength have increased; 3) The industry’s profit margin has declined, and some companies have taken the initiative to withdraw. CCRI currently has 15 production bases across the country, which is close to the upstream polyether origin of Oak.The strength of the technical service team is constantly developing. With the entering of a new round of rapid allocation of production capacity in 17-20 years, it is expected that the revenue side will maintain rapid growth.
19Q1 cost-side epoxy resin decreased rapidly, and regional bargaining power brought about price adjustment of water reducer products. The industry’s leading company’s gross profit margin rebounded significantly in 19Q1. It is expected that the net profit growth rate of Jianyan admixture business in 19/20 will be 64%/ 27%.
Xiamen Construction Engineering testing leader, actively practicing multi-region + multi-field expansion of construction engineering and building material testing industry has a low concentration. According to the data of the CNCA, the construction engineering / building material testing market size in 2017 was 36.52 billion yuan.The area of testing qualification area is significant, and the testing of building materials is subject to restrictions on 南宁桑拿 material characteristics and freight economy. It also has certain regional characteristics. New laboratories or acquisitions outside the country are the main means to achieve expansion in the field. The company is currently in the Xiamen Construction Engineering Inspection Market.The market share is the first, and the profit rate is stable at more than 30%. Through the “self-built + acquisition” to expand foreign business, currently also has layout in Chongqing, Shanghai, Hainan, Yunnan, and announced the intentional acquisition of large institutions in Hebei and Shanghai, 2018Xiamen test income 2.
600 million in the field 1.
The company actively expands the testing business in new areas such as electronics and electrical, environmental protection, transportation, and fire protection, and moves towards a comprehensive testing agency.
Overwrite Buy rating for the first time with a target price of 7.
At RMB 74 we expect the company to earn EPS 0 in 19-21.
79 yuan, an annual increase of 50% / 22% / 19%, currently expected to correspond to 11 / 9x 2019 / 20E P / E, at a historically low forecast, but also significantly lower than the average valuation of comparable companies.
Estimated 19-year net profit is broken down into admixtures 2.
2 ppm + detection 1 ppm + other 0.
50,000 yuan (concrete 0.
2+ software services 0.
2 + other 0.
10,000 yuan), with reference to the valuation of comparable companies, adopting the segment assessment method, giving admixtures / testing / other businesses 13-15x / 15-20x / 13-15x2019E P / E estimates, target price 7.
74 yuan / share, covering the buy rating for the first time.
Catalysts include: 1) faster-than-expected performance growth; 2) landing of outbound mergers and acquisitions.
Risk warning: The real estate investment growth forecast is higher than expected, and the cash flow of the admixture business deteriorates.